Bill,
No and Yes. Read on.
SPACE EXPLORATION – A JOURNEY TO NOWHERE
Make no mistake about it, the principal reason we are spending billions of dollars on space exploration is because (1) we believe there are other intelligent civilizations in space – which is very likely - and that (2) one day, we may be able to visit them – which is very unlikely. But there is another reason. A more practical reason. That reason is money.
You will note, whenever the NASA budget gets in trouble and people begin to doubt the wisdom of spending all this money on something that may never happen – viz space travel - stories about UFO’s or alien civilizations appear out of nowhere. These stories seem to be disconnected and spontaneous but that’s not necessarily true. They could be deliberate and planned because their real purpose may have nothing to do with space travel and everything to do with maintaining the taxpayer’s generous support of NASA.
You see, NASA needs the money we give them. Without it, a whole lot of people and a whole lot of very comfortable lifestyles would go down the drain. So, when you read your next space story, keep your hand on your wallet. Think about what may be behind the story – money rather than little green men.
Update: August 10th, 2009: We are now going to spend billions of dollars to see if "life" may have existed one day on the Jupiter moon, Europea, not human life, just living microorganisms. And if we do, how will that change any of our lives. I KNOW life exists in the Cosmos. Intelligent life. Lots of it. So what. If we can't go there and they can't come here what difference will it make.
NASA is playing games - having scientific fun - with huge amounts of taxpayer money. Plus they are earning a nice paycheck. I don't think I want to spend billions to see if the water under the surface of Europea has signs of living organisms. Let's just assume it does and move on and save all that money. We can use it here. Anyway, most of the stories I read are propaganda to get them more money to play with. Now I will go along with exploring our solar system, that's fine. But let's use robots to explore the universe and keep man at home unless and until we prove we can exceed light speed and live to tell the tale. At that point, we can reconsider our priorities. Until then, ignore all those budget-justifying stories..
An example of the type stories I refer to, appeared in the August 20, 2003 edition of DISCOVER MAGAZINE. Here’s a reprint of the cover:
DISCOVER MAGAZINE August 2003
“Soon, a powerful new space telescope may find an Earth-like planet in another solar system. NASA already has at least five plans that could get us there!”
The story goes on to say ‘it might be easier than you think’.
Imagine that, not one – but five plans that NASA has developed to get us into outer space. Now I ask you. Is that ridiculous, or what?
Come on DISCOVER, NASA might have five plans – they could have fifty plans – but it’s going to take a lot more than plans to get us into interstellar space – if we ever do get there. It’s going to take a number of scientific breakthroughs of the first order, and you better understand that. Let’s take a look.
Of the one billion, trillion, trillion stars that are within view of our telescopes right now – 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 - only TWO of them are considered likely targets for exploration according to NASA. That’s because they are the two closest to planet Earth. The TWO are: (1) Alpha Centauri - 4.4 light years away - about 24 TRILLION miles if you can say that with a straight face - and (2) 55Cancri - a bit further out at 41 light years – which is 240 TRILLON miles from Earth (which is even funnier). The other 99.999% are too far to even consider.
(Have you noticed how things like a billion or a trillion can sound almost ordinary if you say them often enough? Billions of dollars, trillions of miles? Well, let me assure you, there is nothing ordinary about a billion OR a trillion of anything. In fact, before we proceed, let’s take a look at what a trillion really is so we can understand the nature of the problem before us, when we talk about traveling 240 trillion or even a mere 24 trillion miles into space. Let's talk about one paltry trillion.
Let’s say you wanted to count out a trillion one-dollar bills that were stacked on your farm back in France around 1425A.D, about the time Joan of Arc was burned at the cross. That’s 578 years ago. And let’s say you counted every second of every minute of every day from then until now – 578 years of continuous counting. Night and day, day and night, no sleeping, no eating, no nothing - just counting. Think you’d be about done by now?
Nope. To count out those one trillion one-dollar bills, you would have had to start 31,500 years earlier – back about 30,000 BC- and then you might be finishing up right about now. And I say "might" because I allowed you one second per bill and when you get up around 413,125,345,126, it might take more than one second to say that. So the time to count would increase with the bigger numbers, but you get the point. No matter how you cut it, ONE trillion is a tremendous number. Now try to imagine what TWENTY-FOUR trillion might be. It would be incomprehensible is what it would be.
So, when you hear talk about space travel that’s what they’re talking about, 24 trillion miles to Alpha Centauri and 240 trillion miles to 55Cancri.
But let’s face it, scientists knew a long time ago that these numbers were too much for most of us to comprehend (let alone accept), so they came up with a new way to express them – something easier for us to understand. They now call five and one-half trillion miles, "a light year". You can see how much better that sounds. After all, one of anything is so much easier to get next to than five-and-a-half trillion of the same thing, right? "Yes, of course right." (Fiddler)
Okay then, one light year is the distance one will travel if one journeys for one year at the speed of light, which is 667 million miles per hour. And at that speed, a one way trip to Alpha Centauri would take just 4.4 years while a one-way trip to 55Cancri would take 41 years. (I hope that’s clear.)
As I said before, if you say these numbers often enough, you almost think they are real. But they are NOT real. Earth space ships will not be traveling at 667 million miles per hour and neither will Earth’s people. Right now, the maximum speed we can reach on Earth is the ‘escape velocity’ from Earth and that is 25,000 MPH. That’s a far cry from 667,000,000 MPH a speed that is TONS faster than even the proverbial speeding bullet. In fact, it’s such a far cry, that we will have to learn to go 26,700 times FASTER that our fastest speed today just to reach the speed of light.
That's not two times our top speed of 25,000 MPH folks which itself would be incredible, this is 26,700 TIMES FASTER.
Don't hold your breath.
No matter, Even that isn’t the most daunting problem. In order to travel into interstellar space – beyond our solar system – to Alpha Centauri and 55Cancri - we are going to have to accomplish some incredible things, achieve fantastic technological breakthroughs.
For one thing, we are going to have to find a way to exceed the speed of light, which Albert Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity states is impossible. For another, we are going to have to invent a propulsion system to move a significant mass at that fantastic speed over those incredible distances and do it safely since people are going along for the ride. People add their own problems to the mix.
Forgetting the many physical problems that a manned space exploration would have to overcome, there is one problem for which there is almost no answer. How can we expect human beings to sit in a small, confined capsule for four or forty years – day and night –every day – every night - well or sick – stuck in that bleak, dark, cramped, claustrophobic place that is hurtling through endless miles of black, bleak, inhospitable emptiness - without having them kill themselves or worse yet, kill one another. (Actually, this may not be a problem since they will all probably die of boredom anyway.)
Now that’s the journey they are talking about. And whom do we send? Men? Women? Men AND women? Couples? Married folks? Children? Remember, we are talking about YEARS and YEARS in this spacecraft – perhaps as many as 41 years - so by the time they get there, the adults may be too old to function. Certainly that would be true of 55Cancri. These folks will have to spend all of 41 years cramped in a spacecraft just to get there. What kind of shape are they going to be in when they finally reach their destination? What physical condition? What emotional condition? What age will they be?
Even if we send young men and women in their mid-twenties by the time they get there they will be in their mid-sixties. And where are we going to get kids of that age that have the training necessary for such a trip? Then there's the other question: how well adjusted are they going to be when they get there if they have to spend all their formative years in a small capsule, rushing through the endless, deep, dark, cold void of interstellar space. Not very, I would guess.
Caveat: Animals hibernate. So there is the possibility that space travelers will be able to do the same and 'sleep' for the entire trip. That's popular in sci-fi but in real life? That's another thing altogether. But it is possible. Accelerating a mass to 186,000 MPS may not be.
The DISCOVER story goes on to describes two of the more promising of the five systems they think may get us into deep space. Neither of these two systems exists, of course, and one of them may NEVER exist, but they are nevertheless called our best shots. So let's look at them.
The two proposed systems are (1) Anti-matter rockets and (2) Fusion ramjet rockets. I’d like to take a minute to discuss each of them with you (as a non-professional).
To begin with, let me jump forward a couple of hundred years. It took us TRILLIONS of dollars and tens of thousands of man-hours to do it, but we have overcome all the difficulties and the two new rocket systems are now fully operational and standing on the launching pad ready to go. Let’s see what we got for our money.
First, their speed.
All things being equal, the fusion ramjet could be faster accelerating as it goes and reaching nearly the speed of light at some point. This would of course be dependent on the resolution of a number of very big problems but for now we will assume we overcame those and have built a ramjet that can reach speeds between 50-60% of light speed. (The anti-matter rocket would actually be the more feasible of the two but it is slower reaching a top speed of only 10% of light speed.)
Next, we have the matter of fuel. The anti-matter rocket is not only slower but to make the trip to 55Cancri, it will require 90,000,000 tons of fuel that must be carried along, a problem so significant that it likely will render the project moot. Of course if you could ‘manufacture’ the anti-matter particles on board that would alleviate the problem but at the present time there seems little hope of that.
On the other hand, the fusion ramjet (or ramscoop as it is sometimes known), does not require that any fuel be carried along because it uses pure hydrogen – a fuel that could be fused in space using a mile-wide ‘scoop’ to gather in the raw materials. But unfortunately we don't have the technical capacity or capability to do that so for now, neither of these so-called technologies is even remotely close to becoming a reality.
But I don’t care. I am going to make another leap of faith and assume we have overcome these gigantic problems and both rockets on now on the launching pad, ready to go. Our selected destination: Alpha Centauri, 4.4 light years away! Our closest neighbor!
I can’t wait to say hello!
The trip will take about 44 years if we use our anti-matter rocket and 9 years if we use the faster, fusion ramjet rocket both systems traveling well below light speed. (Double those times -- 88 years and 18 years - if you plan to bring our guys and girls back home again.)
One more thing, if we change our mind at the last minute and decide to go to 55Cancri instead of Alpha Centauri, that trip will take 440 years by anti-matter rocket and 90 years by fusion ramjet – and that’s one way. But for now, our destination remains our closest neighbor, Alpha Centauri.
Now we need volunteers for the trip. Who do you think will volunteer? What kind of person would want to go on such a voyage into eternal blackness to reach a place they don’t even know for sure is inhabited – or how they will be received if it is. I can tell you one thing, it isn’t going to be me. I only have this one life and I’m not throwing it away on such nonsense. So, how about you? Would you like to go?
Not sure? A little nervous? Tell you what, your car is probably about the size of a space capsule – why don’t you go outside, get inside, roll up the windows, and sit in there for a couple or five years. Just sit there and look out the window – relax – maybe read a book or two. I know it’s boring but then so is riding in a space capsule for ten or forty years. When the time is up, come back and tell me if you still want to go. And remember it is very likely to be a one-way trip so don’t count on coming home.
This is the reality of interstellar space travel. So what do you say? Do you think you might want to go or would you rather wait for the next trip?
The truth is, these futuristic propulsion systems may sound awesome (which they are) but they won’t solve anything because exceeding light speed is the only thing that will make space travel possible and that’s inherently impossible with these technologies. They are therefore pointless and a waste of time and money that could better be spent elsewhere. Let me explain why I say that.
There are only a few stars that are – in celestial terms - anywhere near planet Earth. As we have discussed, Alpha Centauri is one – 24 trillion miles away – and 55Cancri is another –240 trillion miles away. Those are our very closest neighbors. Others are further - a whole lot further away – anywhere from 50 light years to a BILLION light years away.
(Do you know how far a billion light years is? I will tell you. It is over five billion trillion miles. That’s 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 miles from home. And what does that mean? It means if we learn to travel at 667 million miles per hour which is the speed of light (SOL), we can reach these most distant galaxies in maybe one BILLION years! Now I ask you, is this silliness or not?)
No one – no group of humans - can travel for 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 years in a space capsule, procreating or not. It isn't happening, ever. Therefore, if we are to travel into interstellar space, it must be done in far more reasonable times, months instead of years, years instead of decades. If we can’t do that, we simply aren’t going anywhere. Can we do that? Can we go to these distant places in reasonable times? The answer is simple: sure we can if we can learn to travel faster – much faster - than the speed of light. Nothing else will work.
If we are going to the stars, we will need to find a way to zip around the Cosmos at speeds far greater than light speed. Therefore, that must be the overriding principal of the space program - we conquer light speed or we stay home.
So, can man exceed the speed of light? One man says no. That man is Albert Einstein. He says that at light speed, time slows up and matter expands into infinity. returning to its natural state of energy. So is Albert right or is he wrong? The answer to that question is critical. In fact, it is the only question that matters.
It’s time to stop wasting our money on manned exploration of space. It's pointless and a waste of money. It would be far smarter to confine the space program to our own solar system and use robots in the program. The rest of our time and money should address the only thing that matters: finding out if we can exceed light speed or not.
On the answer to this one single question rests the future of interstellar space travel. (Science is trying to find that answer at Fermilab (Chicago) and CERN (Switzerland. They may have it very soon.) If we find we can, no matter by how much, then all bets are off and its full speed ahead. But if we cannot, or are not able to prove that we can, we should confine our space program to the do-able, manned exploration of our own solar system.
It is my belief that available evidence and deductive logic is on the side of Albert Einstein’s theory that light speed is nature's speed limit. That as matter approaches light speed, time slows up and the matter will expand into infinity (energy). If that's true we aren't going anywhere no matter how much manpower and money we throw into the space program. The remainder of this article will deal with that question.
The future of space travel lies in the answer to the question: can man exceed the speed of light. Albert Einstein says he can not. Others say he can. So who is right? If Einstein is right, man is earthbound. If Einstein is wrong, the Cosmos will open up for exploration. Let’s see what we know
Between 1990-2000, there was a breakthrough in space research. Scientists managed to find 107 planets orbiting ‘nearby’ stars, (‘nearby’ being a relative term). These were the first planets other than Earth ever to be found in the cosmos. It was a stunning achievement. Since that time, even more planets have been discovered orbiting nearby stars.
But these are just the beginning. There are many more planets in space, perhaps as many as there are stars, perhaps even more. (There are five billion, trillion, trillion stars in the known Cosmos. Most of these stars don't have planetary systems but some do and since the number of orbiting planets varies from a few to many, it is likely the end number of planets will be great indeed. Certainly in the billions if not trillions.)
Regardless of the actual number, many of these planets will have developed life – a great number will have developed intelligent life – and some – perhaps millions, perhaps billions - will have developed advanced civilizations. This is true because the process of creating life – the process of evolution - is spontaneous and ongoing, even to this day. We can see stars being born, and we can see stars in the final stages of their own life and stars at every stage between.
So, how many planets in the Cosmos could there by that may support life? Well, we don’t know but of one thing, we can be certain: there are far more planets that do NOT support life, than those that do. It’s not even going to be close.
Therefore, we can find not 107, but 107,000 or even 107,000,000 (million) planets and never find one that supports life at all and yet, that won’t prove a thing. The ratio of planets with life to those without life might easily be a million to one or even a BILLION to one. So you could find one billion planets before you find one with life and maybe you would need to find a billion with life before you found one that had developed intelligent life. It wouldn't matter because you would still end up with a thousand trillion planets harboring intelligent life. That's because there are just so many to begin with.
This is not fantasy, this is fact. Life is a perfectly natural, spontaneous occurrence that develops on planets wherever and whenever circumstances and conditions are right. And where life begins, intelligent life often follows. Not always of course, but it does happen. And with that intelligent life, advanced civilizations follow. With so many planets to begin with, it stands to reason that there will be a lot of them that wiill support life which is a natural step in the evolutionary system.
Our Universe – there may be others – but ours is a "work-in-progress". What that means is there is a lot going on here – a constant stream of activity. It is a place where old stars die and new stars are born to replace them. It is an unending cycle of cosmic activity. This is true throughout the Cosmos. And because of this activity, some of the stars are younger than Earth but others are older, even much older.
In July of 2003, astronomers announced they had discovered planets in our universe that are billions of years older than Earth. This is an important finding although it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Stars and the planets that orbit them, can be anywhere along the path of evolutionary development from way behind us to way in front of us. That is the nature of the Cosmos of which we are a member. But this discovery is significant for another reason.
Here on Earth, it has been our experience that life matures and advances with time and with that advancement comes intelligence and in time advanced intelligence and technology. It's a natural process.
Take Earth for example. See how our technology has expanded over the past five millennia. Compare us today with where we were 5,000 years ago. There is simply no comparison. Now imagine where we might be 5,000 or 10,000 years from now. it's hard to imagine. Yet, looking back at where we came from, we can get an idea of where we might be going. Far ahead of where we are today, would be my guess.
That’s why I say, with maturity come intelligence and with intelligence comes civilizations and technology and with time, technology becomes advanced technology. It’s the natural progression.
So, if that’s true on Earth – and it is – why would it be any different in space? There is nothing unique or special about Earth. We are all part of the same whole. What happens here is a natural process that can and will occur anywhere else in the Cosmos where conditions are right.
How the technology of a planet with life compares with Earth will depend simply on whether that planet is older than Earth or younger - and by how much. If the civilization is younger than Earth, it will be behind us – somewhere in our technological past. If the civilization is older than Earth, it will be ahead of us – somewhere in our technological future. Perhaps far into our future.
And that’s where I find the problem to be. Since there are so very many planets – some must be younger than Earth but some must also be older, even a lot older. These older planets with intelligent life would be technologically advanced over us, meaning they are today where we want to be tomorrow. So if we think we will be able to travel in space one day, which is the reason we are spending all this money today, well then, they are already there. SO, where are they?
Now understand, even at a ratio of one intelligent advanced civilization for every one billion, billion planets in space (1 with 18 zeros) , there are still going to be A THOUSAND, TRILLION of such civilizations each and every one capable of zipping around the Cosmos at will.
So how come they aren't here? In droves.
When we speak of space travel, remember this: every star is eons away from us, ever the very closest ones. For example, Alpha Centauri is 4 light years away. that's 22 TRILLION miles away. 55 Cancri is 44 light years away. That's about 242 trillion miles away. (That's 242,000,000,000.000 miles from home.)
And these are the two closest stars to Earth.
So if we were able to travel at light speed or 66 MILLION MILES PER HOUR (which isn't going to happen), it would still take 4 years to get to Centauri one way and 44 years to reach 55 Cancri. Every other star of the one billion, trillion, trillion stars, is further away than that.
Therefore, space travel is NOT going to be measured in MPH. That's out of the question., Space travel will have to involve some new technology like teleportation ("Beam me up Scottie") which uses the entanglement theory of quantum mechanics. Something is here then it it there without traversing the distance in between. That's the only way we could ever hope to navigate such distances. (And remember, the distances I quoted were to the two NEARST STARS. It dramatically increases for all the others.
But, if we can develop such a transportation technology, and that's a very big IF, , then others more advanced than we are, already must have it. And there have to be billions if not trillions of them out there. So - and I hate to keep asking the same question but - where are they?
After all, if we had such a system and could then zip around the Cosmos at will visiting other stars, we'd be doing it every day. As would they. Hell, our Earth would be as busy as the Dallas-Ft Worth airport with flying saucers zipping in and out all the time. Except that it isn't. .
And therein lies the rub, as they say. They aren't here because they can't get here. Not today where we live and not tomorrow where they live.
On the other hand, if your answer is they are not here because they haven’t yet "found us" in the vast Cosmos, what does that say for our chances of finding them when (and if) we do learn to travel faster than light? After all, they have a big head start on us, thousands of years, tens of thousands of year, maybe even a lot more. If they can't find us with their advanced technologies, how can we believe we could ever find them and if not, why waste all this money?
No, they they haven't come and they aren't coming. Our space "neighbors" have NOT learned to exceed the speed of light. Albert Einstein was right – and is right - matter cannot exceed light speed because at light speed, matter ceases to be matter and is converted back to energy and what that means is, as matter approaches the speed of light, it disintegrates – it disappears – POOF, it is gone. All that remains is energy. Matter converts to energy as it approaches light speed. That’s the golden rule.
And what is energy? Well, energy is that from which all things are made. It is the building block of existence. Here’s a simplistic example of energy. When a building burns, the wood from which it was constructed disappears and its base energy, in the form of heat, is released to be recycled back into the Cosmos for reuse. That is what will happen to any matter that approaches light speed - it will be converted to energy and absorbed by the Cosmos for recycling. That's what Einstein means when he says it will expand unto infinity - it will disappear, change form, cease to exist as matter.
Earth has not been visited by Aliens. Nor will it be. The distances in space are simply too great for them to overcome as they are too great for us to overcome. The Cosmos is, and is meant to be, insular in nature.
Of all the arguments against space travel, this is to me, the strongest. If older civilizations could get here, they would be here. Lots of them. After all, they have had tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of year’s head start. The reason they haven’t come is that they can’t. The speed of light - as far as mass is concerned - is absolute.
Of course some of you will think, well that's because we are alone in the Cosmos. That's why nobody has come. Fine, then why bother to spend a fortune trying to go out there? Why bother if it is just a trillion, trillion, trillion miles of dark, bleak, barren, dangerous emptiness?
Or is the real reason for fun and all those nice cars and swimming pools? Is there really any reason to spend money to leave this solar system to go nowhere?
My answer is no. We might as well save our money because we aren't going to the stars. But I’ll tell you might happen – no, what will happen - and in the near future. Soon, we are going to hear from an alien civilization via radio telescope. That’s right. We are going to discover a signal aimed at us and coming from a distant star. And if want to communicate with them, we can. At least for a while. But, I am afraid not for very long. Why? Because what will start as being very exciting, will soon become very boring.
Let me explain.
It is true that space messages travel at the Speed of Light. Nevertheless, for a simple coded message to go from Earth to even the closest planets where life might exist will still take a long time – it will almost five years to Alpha Centauri and 41 years to 55Cancri. And that’s one way.
Let’s assume we find intelligence on a planet that is between the two – say 15 light years from Earth. For us to communicate with them will take 15 years. For a return message, you can count another 15 years. That’s 30 years for the round trip. (And it could be much, much more if the planet is further away.)
And what will these early messages, say? Well, we don’t have a common language. We don’t know who or what they are. And they know as much – or as little – about us. So what shall we say to one another?
Well, since we don’t share a language, I am certain the first messages must be limited to mathematics i.e. dots and dashes- repetitive signals that will prove to them that we are an intelligent civilizations.
Dot Pause Dot Dot Longer Pause = Dot Dot Dot (quickly)
Then repeat the message over and over.
That’s 1 + 2 = 3 and indicates we are intelligent individuals.
That will be a beginning. And it will take 30 years. But we want more than that,we want to communicate with the aliens. Lord knows how long it will be before we can create a mutual language that will allow us to communicate ideas, but that will be our goal. So let’s assume we begin to teach each other.
Each "lesson" will take 30 years round trip, and will start out with very simple sentences. So simple in fact, that in a short time, everyone but the scientists will become bored with the whole project and go back to sci-fi on TV which will be far more exciting.
Not very promising. I think we might as well save our money.
Perhaps the most amazing thing about space and the cosmos is the fact that Earth is such a small, insignificant part of it all.
It has been said if you took 10,000,000 dump trucks and filled them all with sand pebbles, Earth would be to the cosmos as one pebble of that sand is to those truckloads.
It leaves us to wonder exactly what we are in the grand scheme of things, something apparently so tiny, so insignificant, so minute as to be impossible to differentiate from the whole.
Now that’s something to think about.
In conclusion, let me say this. To man, flying into space is an exhilarating experience. To see our planet from the perspective of space must indeed be an awesome sight. It expands man’s knowledge and his very being.
Unfortunately it is also very costly.
It is my opinion that before committing all that money to space we should carefully weigh what we are going to get back for our investment. Where is the gain to putting a man on Mars? Why would we want to do that other than to prove we can?
Ray Bradburry, creator of Star-Trek, said not long ago that he thinks we should land a man on Mars because one day, we may want to ‘colonize’ that planet as perhaps Earth was once ‘colonized’.
Well, that may be a romantic notion but to me, it is not very realistic. First, I doubt Earth was ever ‘colonized’ in as much as I don’t see how any star neighbor could have gotten here.
Second, what would propel us to want to colonize another planet? What would be a possible reason for us to put 50 or 100 people into some sort of cramped space craft, and rocket them at incredible speeds across deep space to another barren planet millions of miles from home? Men and women, young and old, professional and working class? What would be our motivation? What would be our goal?
The reason most often expressed is to escape an impending doom of Earth. Perhaps Earth would be dying and there would be a need to ‘seed’ another planet. But if Earth was dying how then would we choose those who are to be saved? And who would do the choosing? It is my guess that if the people on Earth thought this planet was doomed for whatever reason, they would riot for a chance to get on board that space shuttle to Mars and it would cause a panic the likes of which we have never seen before. In the ensuing tumult, no one would every get to go.
No, the reason for venturing into space is simply man’s quest for knowledge. And that’s fine. But let’s keep that quest inside our own solar system except for space robots. And let’s be careful of how much effort and money we put into what is a realistically, a journey without a true destination - a Journey To Nowhere.
Until someone proves that matter can exceed light speed while maintaining its physical properties, it is all but fruitless to spend so much money to reach another planet when we can use that money to save the one we have.
That seems like a better option to me.
Joey
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Make no mistake about it, the principal reason we are spending billions of dollars on space exploration is because (1) we believe there are other intelligent civilizations in space – which is very likely - and that (2) one day, we may be able to visit them – which is very unlikely. But there is another reason. A more practical reason. That reason is money.
You will note, whenever the NASA budget gets in trouble and people begin to doubt the wisdom of spending all this money on something that may never happen – viz space travel - stories about UFO’s or alien civilizations appear out of nowhere. These stories seem to be disconnected and spontaneous but that’s not necessarily true. They could be deliberate and planned because their real purpose may have nothing to do with space travel and everything to do with maintaining the taxpayer’s generous support of NASA.
You see, NASA needs the money we give them. Without it, a whole lot of people and a whole lot of very comfortable lifestyles would go down the drain. So, when you read your next space story, keep your hand on your wallet. Think about what may be behind the story – money rather than little green men.
Update: August 10th, 2009: We are now going to spend billions of dollars to see if "life" may have existed one day on the Jupiter moon, Europea. Not human life, just living microorganisms. And if we do, so what? How will that change any of our lives. I KNOW life exists in the Comos. Intelligent life. Lots of it. So what. If we can't go there and they can't come here what difference does it make. And we aren't. (See the article below.)
NASA is playing games - having scientific fun - with huge amounts of taxpayer money. Plus they are earning a nice paycheck. I don't think I want to spend billions to see if the water under the surface of Europea has signs of living organisms. Let's just assume it does and move on and save all that money. We can use it here. Anyway, most of the stories I read are propaganda to get them more money to play with. I say use robots to explore the universe and keep men at home unless and until we prove we can exceed light speed and live to tell the tale. Until then, ignore those budget-justifying stories.
An example of the type stories I refer to, appeared in the August 20, 2003 edition of DISCOVER MAGAZINE. Here’s a reprint of the cover:
DISCOVER MAGAZINE August 2003
“Soon, a powerful new space telescope may find an Earth-like planet in another
solar system. NASA already has at least five plans that could get us there!”
The story goes on to say ‘it might be easier than you think’.
Imagine that, not one – but five plans that NASA has developed to get us into outer space. Now I ask you. Is that ridiculous, or what?
Come on DISCOVER, NASA might have five plans – they could have fifty plans – but it’s going to take a lot more than plans to get us into interstellar space – if we ever do get there. It’s going to take a number of scientific breakthroughs of the first order, and you better understand that. Let’s take a look.
Of the one billion, trillion, trillion stars that are within view of our telescopes right now – 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 - only TWO of them are considered likely targets for exploration according to NASA. That’s because they are the two closest to planet Earth. The TWO are: (1) Alpha Centauri - 4.4 light years away - about 24 TRILLION miles if you can say that with a straight face - and (2) 55Cancri - a bit further out at 41 light years – which is 240 TRILLON miles from Earth (which is even funnier). The other 99.999% are too far to even consider.
(Have you noticed how things like a billion or a trillion can sound almost ordinary if you say them often enough? Billions of dollars, trillions of miles? Well, let me assure you, there is nothing ordinary about a billion OR a trillion of anything. In fact, before we proceed, let’s take a look at what a trillion really is so we can understand the nature of the problem before us, when we talk about traveling 240 trillion or even a mere 24 trillion miles into space. Let's talk about one paltry trillion.
Let’s say you wanted to count out a trillion one-dollar bills that were stacked on your farm back in France around 1425A.D, about the time Joan of Arc was burned at the cross. That’s 578 years ago. And let’s say you counted every second of every minute of every day from then until now – 578 years of continuous counting. Night and day, day and night, no sleeping, no eating, no nothing - just counting. Think you’d be about done by now?
Nope. To count out those one trillion one-dollar bills, you would have had to start 31,500 years earlier – back about 30,000 BC- and then you might be finishing up right about now. And I say "might" because I allowed you one second per bill and when you get up around 413,125,345,126, it might take more than one second to say that. So the time to count would increase with the bigger numbers, but you get the point. No matter how you cut it, ONE trillion is a tremendous number. Now try to imagine what TWENTY-FOUR trillion might be. It would be incomprehensible is what it would be.
So, when you hear talk about space travel that’s what they’re talking about, 24 trillion miles to Alpha Centauri and 240 trillion miles to 55Cancri.
But let’s face it, scientists knew a long time ago that these numbers were too much for most of us to comprehend (let alone accept), so they came up with a new way to express them – something easier for us to understand. They now call five and one-half trillion miles, "a light year". You can see how much better that sounds. After all, one of anything is so much easier to get next to than five-and-a-half trillion of the same thing, right? "Yes, of course right." (Fiddler)
Okay then, one light year is the distance one will travel if one journeys for one year at the speed of light, which is 667 million miles per hour. And at that speed, a one way trip to Alpha Centauri would take just 4.4 years while a one-way trip to 55Cancri would take 41 years. (I hope that’s clear.)
As I said before, if you say these numbers often enough, you almost think they are real. But they are NOT real. Earth space ships will not be traveling at 667 million miles per hour and neither will Earth’s people. Right now, the maximum speed we can reach on Earth is the ‘escape velocity’ from Earth, the speed at which spacecraft can leave the pull of Earth’s gravity and orbit in space, and that's just 25,000 MPH. That’s a far cry from 667,000,000 MPH which is TONS faster than even the proverbial speeding bullet. In fact, it’s such a far cry, that we will have to learn to go 26,700 times FASTER that our fastest speed today just to reach the speed of light.
That's not two times our top speed of 25,000 MPH folks which itself would be incredible, this is 26,700 TIMES FASTER.
Don't hold your breath.
No matter, Even that isn’t the most daunting problem. In order to travel into interstellar space – beyond our solar system – to Alpha Centauri and 55Cancri - we are going to have to accomplish some incredible things, achieve fantastic technological breakthroughs.
For one thing, we are going to have to find a way to exceed the speed of light, which Albert Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity states is impossible. For another, we are going to have to invent a propulsion system to move a significant mass at that fantastic speed over those incredible distances and do it safely since people are going along for the ride. People add their own problems to the mix.
Forgetting the many physical problems that a manned space exploration would have to overcome, there is one problem for which there is almost no answer. How can we expect human beings to sit in a small,confined capsule for four or forty years – day and night –every day – every night - well or sick – stuck in that bleak, dark, cramped, claustrophobic place that is hurtling through endless miles of black, bleak, inhospitable emptiness - without having them kill themselves or worse yet, kill one another. (Actually, this may not be a problem since they will all probably die of boredom anyway.)
Now that’s the journey they are talking about. And whom do we send? Men? Women? Men AND women? Couples? Married folks? Children? Remember, we are talking about YEARS and YEARS in this spacecraft – perhaps as many as 41 years - so by the time they get there, the adults may be too old to function. Certainly that would be true of 55Cancri. These folks will have to spend all of 41 years cramped in a spacecraft just to get there. What kind of shape are they going to be in when they finally reach their destination? What physical condition? What emotional condition? What age will they be?
Even if we send young men and women in their mid-twenties by the time they get there they will be in their mid-sixties. And where are we going to get kids of that age that have the training necessary for such a trip? Then there's the other question: how well adjusted are they going to be when they get there if they have to spend all their formative years in a small capsule, rushing through the endless, deep, dark, cold void of interstellar space. Not very, I would guess.
Caveat: Animals hibernate. So there is the possibility that space travelers will be able to do the same and 'sleep' for the entire trip. That's popular in sci-fi but in real life? That's another thing altogether. But it is possible. Accelerating a mass to 186,000 MPS may not be.
The DISCOVER story goes on to describes two of the more promising of the five systems they think may get us into deep space. Neither of these two systems exists, of course, and one of them may NEVER exist, but they are nevertheless called our best shots. So let's look at them.
The two proposed systems are (1) Anti-matter rockets and (2) Fusion ramjet rockets. I’d like to take a minute to discuss each of them with you (as a non-professional).
To begin with, let me jump forward a couple of hundred years. It took us TRILLIONS of dollars and tens of thousands of man-hours to do it, but we have overcome all the difficulties and the two new rocket systems are now fully operational and standing on the launching pad ready to go. Let’s see what we got for our money.
First, their speed.
All things being equal, the fusion ramjet could be faster accelerating as it goes and reaching nearly the speed of light at some point. This would of course be dependent on the resolution of a number of very big problems but for now we will assume we overcame those and have built a ramjet that can reach speeds between 50-60% of light speed. T(The anti-matter rocket would actually be the more feasible of the two but it is slower reaching atop speed of only 10% of light speed.)
Next, we have the matter of fuel. The anti-matter rocket is not only slower but to make the trip to 55Cancri, it will require 90,000,000 tons of fuel that must be carried along, a problem so significant that it likely will render the project moot. Of course if you could ‘manufacture’ the anti-matter particles on board that would alleviate the problem but at the present time there seems little hope of that.
On the other hand, the fusion ramjet (or ramscoop as it is sometimes known), does not require that any fuel be carried along because it uses pure hydrogen – a fuel that could be fused in space using a mile-wide ‘scoop’ to gather in the raw materials. But unfortunately we don't have the technical capacity or capability to do that so for now, neither of these so-called technologies is even remotely close to becoming a reality.
But I don’t care. I am going to make another leap of faith and assume we have overcome these gigantic problems and both rockets on now on the launching pad, ready to go. Our selected destination: Alpha Centauri, 4.4 light years away! Our closest neighbor!
I can’t wait to say hello!
The trip will take about 44 years if we use our anti-matter rocket and 9 years if we use the faster, fusion ramjet rocket both systems traveling well below light speed. (Double those times -- 88 years and 18 years - if you plan to bring our guys and girls back home again.)
One more thing, if we change our mind at the last minute and decide to go to 55Cancri instead of Alpha Centauri, that trip will take 440 years by anti-matter rocket and 90 years by fusion ramjet – and that’s one way. But for now, our destination remains our closest neighbor, Alpha Centauri.
Now we need volunteers for the trip. Who do you think will volunteer? What kind of person would want to go on such a voyage into eternal blackness to reach a place they don’t even know for sure is inhabited – or how they will be received if it is. I can tell you one thing, it isn’t going to be me. I only have this one life and I’m not throwing it away on such nonsense. So, how about you? Would you like to go?
Not sure? A little nervous? Tell you what, your car is probably about the size of a space capsule – why don’t you go outside, get inside, roll up the windows, and sit in there for a couple or five years. Just sit there and look out the window – relax – maybe read a book or two. I know it’s boring but then so is riding in a space capsule for ten or forty years. When the time is up, come back and tell me if you still want to go. And remember it is very likely to be a one-way trip so don’t count on coming home.
This is the reality of interstellar space travel. So what do you say? Do you think you might want to go or would you rather wait for the next trip?
The truth is, these futuristic propulsion systems may sound awesome (which they are) but they won’t solve anything because exceeding light speed is the only thing that will make space travel possible and that’s inherently impossible with these technologies. They are therefore pointless and a waste of time and money that could better be spent elsewhere. Let me explain why I say that.
There are only a few stars that are – in celestial terms - anywhere near planet Earth. As we have discussed, Alpha Centauri is one – 24 trillion miles away – and 55Cancri is another –240 trillion miles away. Those are our very closest neighbors. Others are further - a whole lot further away – anywhere from 50 light years to a BILLION light years away.
(Do you know how far a billion light years is? I will tell you. It is over five billion trillion miles. That’s 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 miles from home. And what does that mean? It means if we learn to travel at 667 million miles per hour which is the speed of light (SOL), we can reach these most distant galaxies in maybe one BILLION years! Now I ask you, is this silliness or not?)
No one – no group of humans - can travel for 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 years in a space capsule, procreating or not. It isn't happening, ever. Therefore, if we are to travel into interstellar space, it must be done in far more reasonable times, months instead of years, years instead of decades. If we can’t do that, we simply aren’t going anywhere. Can we do that? Can we go to these distant places in reasonable times? The answer is simple: sure we can if we can learn to travel faster – much faster - than the speed of light. Nothing else will work.
If we are going to the stars, we will need to find a way to zip around the Cosmos at speeds far greater than light speed. Therefore, that must be the overriding principal of the space program - we conquer light speed or we stay home.
So, can man exceed the speed of light? One man says no. That man is Albert Einstein. He says that at light speed, time slows up and matter expands into infinity. returning to its natural state of energy. So is Albert right or is he wrong? The answer to that question is critical. In fact, it is the only question that matters.
It’s time to stop wasting our money on manned exploration of space. It's pointless and a waste of money. It would be far smarter to confine the space program to our own solar system and use robots in the program. The rest of our time and money should address the only thing that matters: finding out if we can exceed light speed or not.
On the answer to this one single question rests the future of interstellar space travel. (Science is trying to find that answer at Fermilab (Chicago) and CERN (Switzerland. They may have it very soon.) If we find we can, no matter by how much, then all bets are off and its full speed ahead. But if we cannot, or are not able to prove that we can, we should confine our space program to the do-able, manned exploration of our own solar system.
It is my belief that available evidence and deductive logic is on the side of Albert Einstein’s theory that light speed is nature's speed limit. That as matter approaches light speed, time slows up and the matter will expand into infinity (energy). If that's true we aren't going anywhere no matter how much manpower and money we throw into the space program. The remainder of this article will deal with that question.
The future of space travel lies in the answer to the question: can man exceed the speed of light. Albert Einstein says he can not. Others say he can. So who is right? If Einstein is right, man is earthbound. If Einstein is wrong, the Cosmos will open up for exploration. Let’s see what we know
Between 1990-2000, there was a breakthrough in space research. Scientists managed to find 107 planets orbiting ‘nearby’ stars, (‘nearby’ being a relative term). These were the first planets other than Earth ever to be found in the cosmos. It was a stunning achievement. Since that time, even more planets have been discovered orbiting nearby stars.
But these are just the beginning. There are many more planets in space, perhaps as many as there are stars, perhaps even more. (There are five billion, trillion, trillion stars in the known Cosmos. Most of these stars don't have planetary systems but some do and since the number of orbiting planets varies from a few to many, it is likely the end number of planets will be great indeed. Certainly in the billions if not trillions.)
Regardless of the actual number, many of these planets will have developed life – a great number will have developed intelligent life – and some – perhaps millions, perhaps billions - will have developed advanced civilizations. This is true because the process of creating life – the process of evolution - is spontaneous and ongoing, even to this day. We can see stars being born, and we can see stars in the final stages of their own life and stars at every stage between.
So, how many planets in the Cosmos could there by that may support life? Well, we don’t know but of one thing, we can be certain: there are far more planets that do NOT support life, than those that do. It’s not even going to be close.
Therefore, we can find not 107, but 107,000 or even 107,000,000 (million) planets and never find one that supports life at all and yet, that won’t prove a thing. The ratio of planets with life to those without life might easily be a million to one or even a BILLION to one. So you could find one billion planets before you find one with life and maybe you would need to find a billion with life before you found one that had developed intelligent life. It wouldn't matter because you would still end up with a thousand billion planets harboring intelligent life. That's because there are just so many to begin with.
This is not fantasy, this is fact. Life is a perfectly natural, spontaneous occurrence that develops on planets wherever and whenever circumstances and conditions are right. And where life begins, intelligent life often follows. Not always of course, but it does happen. And with that intelligent life, advanced civilizations follow. With so many planets to begin with, it stands to reason that there will be a lot of them that wiill support life which is a natural step in the evolutionary system.
Our Universe – there may be others – but ours is a "work-in-progress". What that means is there is a lot going on here – a constant stream of activity. It is a place where old stars die and new stars are born to replace them. It is an unending cycle of cosmic activity. This is true throughout the Cosmos. And because of this activity, some of the stars are younger than Earth but others are older, even much older.
In July of 2003, astronomers announced they had discovered planets in our own universe that are billions of years older than Earth. This is an important finding although it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Stars and the planets that orbit them, can be anywhere along the path of evolutionary development from way behind us to way in front of us. That is the nature of the Cosmos of which we are a member. But this discovery is significant for another reason.
Here on Earth, it has been our experience that life matures and advances with time and with that advancement comes intelligence and in time advanced intelligence and technology. It's a natural process.
Take Earth for example. See how our technology has expanded over the past five millennia. Compare us today with where we were 5,000 years ago. There is simply no comparison. Now imagine where we might be 5,000 or 10,000 years from now. it's hard to imagine. Yet, looking back at where we came from, we can get an idea of where we might be going. Far ahead of where we are today, would be my guess.
That’s why I say, with maturity come intelligence and with intelligence comes civilizations and technology and with time, technology becomes advanced technology. It’s the natural progression.
So, if that’s true on Earth – and it is – why would it be any different in space? There is nothing unique or special about Earth. We are all part of the same whole. What happens here is a natural process that can and will occur anywhere else in the Cosmos where conditions are right.
How the technology of a planet with life compares with Earth will depend simply on whether that planet is older than Earth or younger - and by how much. If the civilization is younger than Earth, it will be behind us – somewhere in our technological past. If the civilization is older than Earth, it will be ahead of us – somewhere in our technological future. Perhaps far into our future.
And that’s where I find the problem to be. Since there are so very many planets – some must be younger than Earth but some must also be older, even a lot older. These older planets with intelligent life would be technologically advanced over us, meaning they are today where we want to be tomorrow. So if we think we will be able to travel in space one day, which is the reason we are spending all this money today, well then, they are already there. SO, where are they?
Now understand, even at a ratio of one intelligent advanced civilization for every one billion, billion planets in space (1 with 18 zeros) , there are still going to be A THOUSAND, BILLION of such civilizations each and every one capable of zipping around the Cosmos at will.
So how come they aren't here? In droves.
When we speak of space travel, remember this: every star is eons away from us, ever the very closest ones. For example, Alpha Centauri is 4 light years away. that's 22 TRILLION miles away. 55 Cancri is 44 light years away. That's about 242 trillion miles away. (That's 242,000,000,000.000 miles from home.)
And these are the two closest stars to Earth.
So if we were able to travel at light speed or 66 MILLION MILES PER HOUR (which isn't going to happen), it would still take 4 years to get to Centauri one way and 44 years to reach 55 Cancri. Every other star of the one billion, trillion, trillion stars, is further away than that.
Therefore, space travel is NOT going to be measured in MPH. That's out of the question., Space travel will have to involve some new technology like teleportation ("Beam me up Scottie") which uses the entanglement theory of quantum mechanics. Something is here then it it there without traversing the distance in between. That's the only way we could ever hope to navigate such distances. (And remember, the distances I quoted were to the two NEARST STARS. It dramatically increases for all the others.
But, if we can develop such a transportation technology, and that's a very big IF, then others more advanced than we are, already must have it. And there have to be billions if not trillions of them out there. So - and I hate to keep asking the same question but - where are they?
After all, if we had such a system and could then zip around the Cosmos at will visiting other stars, we'd be doing it every day. As would they. Hell, our Earth would be as busy as the Dallas-Ft Worth airport with flying saucers zipping in and out all the time. Except that it isn't.
And therein lies the rub, as they say. They aren't here because they can't get here. Not today where we live and not tomorrow where they live.
On the other hand, if your answer is they are not here because they haven’t yet "found us" in the vast Cosmos, what does that say for our chances of finding them when (and if) we do learn to travel faster than light? After all, they have a big head start on us, thousands of years, tens of thousands of year, maybe even a lot more. If they can't find us with their advanced technologies, how can we believe we could ever find them and if not, why waste all this money?
No, they haven't come and they aren't coming. Our space "neighbors" have NOT learned to exceed the speed of light. Albert Einstein was right – and is right - matter cannot exceed light speed because at light speed, matter ceases to be matter and is converted back to energy and what that means is, as matter approaches the speed of light, it disintegrates – it disappears – POOF, it is gone. All that remains is energy. Matter converts to energy as it approaches light speed. That’s the golden rule.
And what is energy? Well, energy is that from which all things are made. It is the building block of existence. Here’s a simplistic example of energy. When a building burns, the wood from which it was constructed disappears and its base energy, in the form of heat, is released to be recycled back into the Cosmos for reuse. That is what will happen to any matter that approaches light speed - it will be converted to energy and absorbed by the Cosmos for recycling. That's what Einstein means when he says it will expand unto infinity - it will disappear, change form, cease to exist as matter.
Earth has not been visited by Aliens. Nor will it be. The distances in space are simply too great for them to overcome as they are too great for us to overcome. The Cosmos is, and is meant to be, insular in nature.
Of all the arguments against space travel, this is to me, the strongest. If older civilizations could get here, they would be here. Lots of them. After all, they have had tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of year’s head start. And there may be millions if not billions of them.
The reason they haven’t come is that they can’t. The speed of light - as far as mass is concerned - is absolute.
Of course some of you will think, well that's because we are alone in the Cosmos. That's why nobody has come. Fine, then why bother to spend a fortune trying to go out there? Why bother if it is just a trillion, trillion, trillion miles of dark, bleak, barren, dangerous emptiness?
Or is the real reason for fun and all those nice cars and swimming pools? Is there really any reason to spend money to leave this solar system to go nowhere?
My answer is no. We might as well save our money because we aren't going to the stars. But I’ll tell you might happen – no, what will happen - and in the near future. Soon, we are going to hear from an alien civilization via radio telescope. That’s right. We are going to discover a signal aimed at us and coming from a distant star. And if want to communicate with them, we can. At least for a while. But, I am afraid not for very long. Why? Because what will start as being very exciting, will soon become very boring.
Let me explain.
It is true that space messages travel at the Speed of Light. Nevertheless, for a simple coded message to go from Earth to even the closest planets where life might exist will still take a long time – it will almost five years to Alpha Centauri and 41 years to 55Cancri. And that’s one way.
Let’s assume we find intelligence on a planet that is between the two – say 15 light years from Earth. For us to communicate with them will take 15 years. For a return message, you can count another 15 years. That’s 30 years for the round trip. (And it could be much, much more if the planet is further away.)
And what will these early messages, say? Well, we don’t have a common language. We don’t know who or what they are. And they know as much – or as little – about us. So what shall we say to one another?
Well, since we don’t share a language, I am certain the first messages must be limited to mathematics i.e. dots and dashes- repetitive signals that will prove to them that we are an intelligent civilizations.
Dot Pause Dot Dot Longer Pause = Dot Dot Dot (quickly)
Then repeat the message over and over.
That’s 1 + 2 = 3 and indicates we are intelligent individuals.
That will be a beginning. And it will take 30 years. But we want more than that,we want to communicate with the aliens. Lord knows how long it will be before we can create a mutual language that will allow us to communicate ideas, but that will be our goal. So let’s assume we begin to teach each other.
Each "lesson" will take 30 years round trip, and will start out with very simple sentences. So simple in fact, that in a short time, everyone but the scientists will become bored with the whole project and go back to sci-fi on TV which will be far more exciting.
Not very promising. I think we might as well save our money.
Perhaps the most amazing thing about space and the cosmos is the fact that Earth is such a small, insignificant part of it all.
It has been said if you took 10,000,000 dump trucks and filled them all with sand pebbles, Earth would be to the cosmos as one pebble of that sand is to those truckloads.
It leaves us to wonder exactly what we are in the grand scheme of things, something apparently so tiny, so insignificant, so minute as to be impossible to differentiate from the whole.
Now that’s something to think about.
In conclusion, let me say this. To man, flying into space is an exhilarating experience. To see our planet from the perspective of space must indeed be an awesome sight. It expands man’s knowledge and his very being.
Unfortunately it is also very costly.
It is my opinion that before committing all that money to space we should carefully weigh what we are going to get back for our investment. Where is the gain to putting a man on Mars? Why would we want to do that other than to prove we can?
Ray Bradburry, creator of Star-Trek, said not long ago that he thinks we should land a man on Mars because one day, we may want to ‘colonize’ that planet as perhaps Earth was once ‘colonized’.
Well, that may be a romantic notion but to me, it is not very realistic. First, I doubt Earth was ever ‘colonized’ in as much as I don’t see how any star neighbor could have gotten here.
Second, what would propel us to want to colonize another planet? What would be a possible reason for us to put 50 or 100 people into some sort of cramped space craft, and rocket them at incredible speeds across deep space to another barren planet millions of miles from home? Men and women, young and old, professional and working class? What would be our motivation? What would be our goal?
The reason most often expressed is to escape an impending doom of Earth. Perhaps Earth would be dying and there would be a need to ‘seed’ another planet. But if Earth was dying how then would we choose those who are to be saved? And who would do the choosing? It is my guess that if the people on Earth thought this planet was doomed for whatever reason, they would riot for a chance to get on board that space shuttle to Mars and it would cause a panic the likes of which we have never seen before. In the ensuing tumult, no one would every get to go.
No, the reason for venturing into space is simply man’s quest for knowledge. And that’s fine. But let’s keep that quest inside our own solar system except for space robots. And let’s be careful of how much effort and money we put into what is a realistically, a journey without a true destination - a Journey To Nowhere.
Until someone proves that matter can exceed light speed while maintaining its physical properties, it is all but fruitless to spend so much money to reach another planet when we can use that money to save the one we have.
That seems like a better option to me.
Caveat: There is one reason we might want to explore our own solar system and that is the availability of minerals that can be used here on Earth. Depending on the amount, the cost, and the importance of the mineral i.e. iron, maybe we could cost justify mining a nearby planet in our own system. But that's a long shot and it's the only shot.
Other than that, we would do well to clean up the mess we have here on Earth and leave space for another day.
Joey
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